What are the best systems for betting on tennis? There is certainly one system for NOT betting on tennis and that is to link two or more results, with the famous martingale: the increase in potential earnings is always, and we repeat, always, proportionally lower than the increase in risk.
Otherwise, bookmakers would not offer bonuses or other incentives to those who tie several results… That said, the most widely used system of betting on tennis is the one that takes into account the favourites of the ‘value’ type, i.e. those players who, due to lack of notoriety or low fan base, are played less than they deserve in technical terms. The related argument is that you should never bet on favourites with a big image, such as Federer and Nadal. Not because they won’t win, indeed they almost always do, but because the odds at which they are offered are almost always punitive.
Better therefore the medium-high range than the high one
The second great tennis betting system* is the one on sets of theoretically balanced matches at the best of three sets (therefore not Slam tournaments): by systematically betting on the 2-1 and 1-2 situations, both quoted well over 3.00 and often close to 4.00, you can have great satisfaction. Also because on the circuit the differences between players are minimal, even when they are far apart in the rankings.
The methods for betting on tennis are numerous, but as a third method we recommend the live game on who is losing, especially (obviously) in matches that on paper were balanced. In fact, the odds move more than proportionally to the change in the scoring situation: someone who is winning expresses the odds of someone who is winning big, to put it simply.
On the contrary, someone who is losing by a few games in the first set is often quoted as having already been defeated.
Factors affecting tennis betting
What are they and therefore also on tennis betting*? There are obviously many, as in all sports, but professional bettors, and also bookmakers who think alike but have opposite goals, have identified three types.
The first of the factors that affect tennis betting is form: it seems trite to say that as soon as you get down to the Djokovic-Nadal-Federer level the values get very close and a world number 15 in a bad form can easily lose to a number 200. In the rest of sport, and in particular in team sports, it doesn’t work like that: the national number 15 in the FIFA ranking will never lose to the number 200, even if it wants to.
The second type of factors that affect tennis betting is the relative importance of the tournament or match for a particular player: for Fognini winning the Monte Carlo tournament was the high point of his career, for Nadal the same tournament is pure routine. If you go down the rankings a bit, the motivations become more concrete: staying in the top 50 of the world also means staying in the big tournaments, without having to play the qualifiers and being able to count on the prizes for the first rounds, which are very heavy even in case of elimination.
The third type of factor is the surface: the same match can give opposite results depending on whether it is played on the grass of Wimbledon or on the clay of Roland Garros, even though in recent years the bounce and speed of the surfaces have come very close, so the surface discourse expresses more a trend, when there is one, than a certainty.
It should be noted that all these factors are usually already taken into account by the bookmaker and therefore in theory the odds offered should already ‘discount’ these considerations. Sometimes this is not the case, for purely allibraic reasons (translation: the mass of play on the top names makes their odds drop more than they should), and it is precisely in these cognitive holes, so to speak, that the bettor has to squeeze in.